Economic calendar

Thursday, July 24

All day

Eurozone PMI have been struggling to stay around the 50.0 boom/bust level while the UK and US numbers have improved a little over the past months. But with tariffs uncertainty hanging over markets, don’t expect any major improvements and watch out for any upticks in prices paid sub indices which could be more important than the headline prints.

What to watch: EUR, GBP

Thursday, July 24

13:15 BST

Trade tensions loom large with the August 1 deadline approaching. The EU stands ready to retaliate with tariffs on US goods if talks with Washington break down. This could erode confidence in the euro’s resilience. The ECB is highly unlikely to make any policy changes at this meeting, but September will be a live meeting where it will reassess the rate path, following eight cuts between June 2024 and June 2025.

What to watch: EUR, Germany 40

Friday, July 25

07:00 BST

The UK jobs market is undoubtedly cooling and wage pressures have eased too. This combined with hotter inflation figures, suggests the bar for the Bank of England accelerating cuts is still high. A cut in August and one more later in the year is still expected. Those expectations could rise if June retail sales show another large drop after an unexpected 2.7% dip in May.

What to watch: GBP, UK 100