Economic calendar

Tuesday, May 20

12:30 BST

All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its rate decision. Last week, strong April job data added complexity to the policy outlook with the economy adding 89,000 jobs—well above forecasts—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Despite this, analysts still anticipate another rate cut, following February’s 25 basis point reduction. With inflation stuck at 2.4%, just above the RBA’s 2% target, the bank faces a tricky balancing act.

What to watch: AUD, Australia 200

Wednesday, May 21

12:30 BST

The recent rate cut by the Bank of England was a hawkish one as a couple of the MPC voted to keep rates unchanged amid worries about the persistence of inflation in the services sector. All eyes will therefore by on the CPI release to see whether the UK will follow the global trend of disinflation. However, for April, CPI is expected to have jumped to 3.3% from 2.6% y/y last month. Any reading above this could send the pound higher.

What to watch: GBP, UK 100

Thursday, May 22

12:30 BST

The negative impact of the trade war has so far been only visible in certain survey-based indicators. But the PMI data is key, simply because of the large sample size. The PMIs provide a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold one of the most current and relevant insights. Any surprise readings could move the needle.

What to watch: EUR, Germany 40