David Scutt
David Scutt
Market Analyst
Expertise: Macroeconomics/fundamentals, strategy, market education
Trading Style: Swing
Experience:
• Former FX spot, forwards and money markets securities dealer/trader with more than 10 years’ experience working in bank treasury
• Managing interest rate and liquidity risk
• Regularly featured in publications such as Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Australian Financial Review
• Ex markets and economics editor for Business Insider, covering macroeconomic and major market events in Asia
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USD/NOK: Rate cut surprise fades as crude calls the shots
Norges Bank cut earlier than expected, but the krone barely blinked. With USD/NOK still tracking oil and risk sentiment more than rates, geopolitical headlines remain the dominant driver.
USD/JPY: BOJ faces heat as inflation overshoots again
CPI surprises to the upside again in Japan, reviving speculation that the BOJ may not be able to sit on its hands much longer. With geopolitical tensions and oil prices also driving price action, USD/JPY continues to grind higher.
NZD/USD: Kiwi hit hard by risk aversion despite Q1 GDP pop
New Zealand’s economy outperformed in Q1, but you wouldn’t know it from the Kiwi’s reaction. NZD/USD broke sharply lower Thursday as geopolitical nerves saw risk appetite crater, triggering a bearish technical break that may have further to run.
XAG/USD: Rising Wedge Threatens to Snap as U.S. Dollar Finds Its Feet
Silver’s rally is starting to wobble, with wedge support under pressure and bullish momentum fading fast. Add in signs the U.S. dollar may have bottomed, and the risk of a bearish break is rising.
British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD wilts as UK inflation, BoE and Fed collide
GBP/USD has surged on better-than-expected UK data, but as those surprises become the new baseline and momentum begins to fade, the pair is now exposed to a volatile macro mix. UK inflation and BoE policy loom large, but it’s the Fed wedged between them that could shake things up the most.
USD/CHF Forecast: Fed signals could tip SNB into negative rates
Deflation, a surging franc, and limited meeting windows all point to the SNB potentially doing more than markets expect this week—could a return to negative rates be the shock that jolts USD/CHF from recent lows?
New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD skates on thin ice as domestic data craters
The Kiwi dollar may be skating on thin ice, with new data pointing to a sharp deterioration in domestic activity. While global risk appetite dominates near-term price action, fading local momentum could reawaken calls for deeper RBNZ rate cuts.
USD/JPY Outlook: Fed, BOJ outlooks to steer price as geopolitical risk simmers
Despite escalating conflict in the Middle East, USD/JPY has rallied as traders prioritise what higher oil prices mean for the Fed’s policy outlook over traditional haven flows. With yield differentials regaining influence, guidance from Powell and Ueda could prove decisive in the days ahead.
USD/JPY: April uptrend broken as Israel-Iran conflict sparks flight to safety
Soaring geopolitical tensions and a rapid narrowing in U.S.-Japan yield spreads have combined to send USD/JPY sharply lower in Asia, breaking trend support and triggering fresh bearish signals. With the risk of further escalation growing, could a deeper carry trade unwind now be on the cards?
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD slips into trouble as spreads implode
U.S. inflation data is missing to the downside at a pace not seen in years, with markets responding by pricing in more cuts from the Fed. That’s hitting USD/CAD hard, breaking long-held support and leaving the trend vulnerable to further downside—unless oversold conditions trigger a snapback.
AUD Underperforms as Trade Talks Return to Square One
A weaker U.S. inflation print and progress on China trade talks weren’t enough to save the Aussie. Instead, it slid across the board, signalling traders see more spin than substance in Trump’s latest tariff deal.