Fawad Razaqzada

Gold was bouncing off its earlier lows at the time of writing, though remained lower on the weak after being unable to drive much higher despite the tensions between Israel and Iran for the past 7 days.

Middle East developments remain the principal lodestar for FX traders, and unless there’s a material shift, dollar’s losses will likely be limited, and it may even find a floor around current levels. As such, the EUR/USD forecast is still subjective to increased volatility as investors await further developments in the Middle East.

It is all to do with tensions in the Middle East raising concerns about supply disruptions, for otherwise the fundamental backdrop for crude oil outlook is far from bullish with the OPEC+ raising supplies and demand growth being weak.

The S&P 500 forecast remains murky as markets grapple with rising geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation anxieties. Sentiment soured across European and Asian bourses in the first half of Thursday, with traders unnerved by the growing spectre of US military involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict.

GBP/USD outlook clouded by oil-driven dollar strength ahead of FOMC decision today. Meanwhile, as UK inflation cools this puts the BoE under pressure to adopt a more dovish stance.