Matt Simpson

Matt Simpson financial analyst

Matt Simpson

Market Analyst

Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment

Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend


Experience:

• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore

• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education

• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC

• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)


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Research

Japanese Yen (JPY) Sentiment Could Be at an Extreme: COT Report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook: Trimmed Mean Inflation in Focus

RBA cash rate futures currently imply a 62% chance of an RBA cut in May, and those odds are likely to increase further should trimmed mean inflation dip to 3% y/y or lower.

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WTI Crude Oil Analysis: Bears Eye Another Assault on $60

Conflicting signals form the COT futures report make the outlook for oil a bit murkier than I'd like. But over the near term, price action suggests WTI crude oil could be facing another attempt at breaking below $60.

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April 24, 2025 12:23 PM
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S&P/ASX 200, Hang Seng Analysis: Price Action Setups - 24 April 2025

The ASX 200 rally faces a wall of resistance, and given the declining volumes on the futures market I suspect a pullback could be. The Hang Seng rally meanwhile looks like it may have more to give, assuming it can break above the March low.

Research

USD/JPY, USD/CHF Rise for 2nd Day, Market Forces Lend SNB a Hand

Trade optimism send the US dollar higher for a second day, and sending demand for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc lower. This bodes well for my bullish outlook for USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

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Japanese Yen Analysis: USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY Price Action Setups

USD/JPY has fallen around 12% from its January high, but with several key levels of support nearby I am inclined to suspect this phase of the decline is much closer to the end than the beginning. CAD/JPY has formed a double bottom around a key support level, and AUD/JPY looks set to extend gains (over the near term).

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AUD/USD Rebound Stalls Near 64c, 200-day EMA; PMIs In Focus

The solid rebound for the Australian dollar over the past two weeks is showing signs of losing steam, with AUD/USD forming a bearish outside day on Tuesday thanks to comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boosting the US dollar.

GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD Price Action Setups: 16 April 2025

We look at intraday levels for GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD ahead of inflation figures from Europe, US retail sales and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Research

Tentative Signs of a US Dollar Rebound Ahead of Powell speech

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the U.S. economic outlook before the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday. And if we maintains his "wait and see" approach Fed members are generally aligned with regarding tariffs, it could help the US dollar extend its bounce seen on Tuesday.

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US Dollar Index, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Analysis: CA inflation, BOC on tap

With the BOC on alert for higher inflation, with key CPI metrics already curling higher, USD/CAD traders will keep a close eye on the latest CPI figures to drop on Tuesday. The US dollar index and USD/CAD also look set for at least a small bounce over the near term.

Research

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, S&P 500 Analysis: COT Report

Asset managers remained net-long the US dollar index, but may have since flipped to bet short with the USD index falling below 100. Traders were less bearish on the Australian and Canadian dollars, and increased bullish interest on EUR/USD.

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