Indices Market

ASX 200 snaps winning streak as bearish signals emerge. Watch key support near 8100 and 8045 after the index's sharpest rally since November 2020.

Over the past 10 trading sessions, the Nasdaq 100 index has shown a strong recovery, gaining more than 13%, driven in part by easing trade tensions between the United States and China, which has helped restore short-term market confidence.

Markets open cautiously as Eurozone inflation stays firm, limiting ECB flexibility. Focus shifts to a busy week of central bank decisions, with the Fed on Wednesday and the BoE on Thursday. U.S. NFP beat forecasts, but growth signals remain mixed. Crude oil dips, silver gains, and earnings from Uber, Disney, and Shopify are on this week. Stay alert as central bank guidance and macro data define the path for global markets.

ASX 200 and Dow Jones test key resistance after strong rallies. Bearish signals are building, with pullbacks likely as momentum shows signs of exhaustion.

The S&P 500 staged an impressive comeback after an early stumble, bouncing back from around 2% down to finish the session higher—before adding to gains in overnight futures trading. Buoyant earnings from US tech giants and fading fears over harsh trade measures have helped turn the tide, with traders now seriously considering the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near future.

Although down noticeably today, the S&P 500 forecast is not fully bearish yet. This is because the Fed is now more likely to step in sooner with its rate cuts to support an ailing economy, while the weakness in data could also encourage Trump to ease off on tariffs and make deals, quicker.

Stock indices extend their gains initially as the positive sentiment from the previous day carried forward into the early European trade. But at the time of writing, markets were coming off their best levels, possibly on the back of the Time Magazine’s interview with Donald Trump.

A day after we saw the unwinding of “Sell America” trade, index futures were back down as a rally in global equities lost momentum. Once again, optimism over a swift resolution to the US-China trade spat was dealt a blow.

The ASX 200 rally faces a wall of resistance, and given the declining volumes on the futures market I suspect a pullback could be. The Hang Seng rally meanwhile looks like it may have more to give, assuming it can break above the March low.

Over the past two trading sessions, the S&P 500 has gained more than 5%, with the price now holding steadily above the 5,300-point level. This renewed bullish bias in the index has been primarily driven by recent comments from President Trump, which point to a possible easing in trade tensions with China.

Trump can certainly talk the talk, but can he also walk the walk? Until he does that, we will remain cautious on our S&P 500 forecast.