APAC session

Bearish momentum is building in gold following last week's reversal from record highs. With optimism in risk assets lingering and technical patterns flashing warnings, it may be some time before gold can mount another serious push towards $3500.

Risk sentiment has taken the driver’s seat for USD/JPY, but this week’s barrage of top-tier U.S. data and BOJ guidance may hand the reins back to fundamentals.

RBA cash rate futures currently imply a 62% chance of an RBA cut in May, and those odds are likely to increase further should trimmed mean inflation dip to 3% y/y or lower.

Sticky inflation in Japan’s capital keeps pressure on the BOJ to normalise policy, but uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and global growth is forcing caution. Despite the hot data, USD/JPY remains a risk appetite trade for now.

Conflicting signals form the COT futures report make the outlook for oil a bit murkier than I'd like. But over the near term, price action suggests WTI crude oil could be facing another attempt at breaking below $60.

A stalled recovery in the Aussie and Kiwi is raising fresh questions over whether recent gains have legs. With bearish candles emerging and the US dollar back in demand, the path of least resistance may be lower—at least for now.

The ASX 200 rally faces a wall of resistance, and given the declining volumes on the futures market I suspect a pullback could be. The Hang Seng rally meanwhile looks like it may have more to give, assuming it can break above the March low.

Trade optimism send the US dollar higher for a second day, and sending demand for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc lower. This bodes well for my bullish outlook for USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

USD/JPY has fallen around 12% from its January high, but with several key levels of support nearby I am inclined to suspect this phase of the decline is much closer to the end than the beginning. CAD/JPY has formed a double bottom around a key support level, and AUD/JPY looks set to extend gains (over the near term).

The solid rebound for the Australian dollar over the past two weeks is showing signs of losing steam, with AUD/USD forming a bearish outside day on Tuesday thanks to comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boosting the US dollar.

Traders are increasingly focused on what a Trump-aligned Fed might mean for policy, inflation, and the dollar. With the risk of unconventional policies back in the mix, the greenback’s downside could extend if deemed a policy error by markets.