AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD eyes key levels ahead of a likely Fed hold and pivotal Australian jobs data. Could soft figures lock in an RBA rate cut?

65c continues to defy AUD/USD of a bullish breakout. Inflation data from China and the US are key data points for Australian dollar traders to keep an eye on this week.

AUD/USD remains stuck in a range following its second failed attempt to break above 65c. Traders will focus on Q1 GDP data to see if a slowing economy warrants an RBA cut in July.

AUD/USD eyes key support and resistance as Australian CPI, RBNZ, and US PCE inflation data loom. Trump’s fiscal policies and weak bond auctions fuel market uncertainty.

The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) faces key domestic data, with sentiment, wages, and jobs in focus, while US inflation and retail sales could drive broader USD direction.

AUD/USD extends gains as yuan strength and Fed hold expectations support Aussie bulls. A retracement could offer dip-buying opportunities above 0.6340.

RBA cash rate futures currently imply a 62% chance of an RBA cut in May, and those odds are likely to increase further should trimmed mean inflation dip to 3% y/y or lower.

The Australian dollar posted a strong recovery, after coming precariously close to testing the 59c last week. And that has left an apparent v-bottom on the AUD/USD chart, a pattern usually associated with significant lows.

The Australian dollar has dipped its toe into the 50-60c range - a level historically reserved for times of great economic stress. But with traders pricing in a global recession now Trump's tariffs have been announced, AUD/USD could be set for a sustained move within that grizzly range.

AUD/USD is on track for a bullish month for March, even if it handed back over half of its early-month gains. Attention now shifts to tomorrow's RBA meeting for AUD/USD traders, alongside ISM and NFP reports from the US.

Whether the RBA cut in Q2 or Q3 could come down to the quarterly inflation figures released on the 30th April. But AUD/USD traders will of course keep a close eye on the AU monthly inflation report and US core PCE figures released this week.