Australia 200

The ASX 200 is seeing bullish signs of life after four weeks of heavy selling, and shows the potential to retest 8000 or even 8100. But given the bearish interest that saw prices plunge the prior four weeks, further losses appear likely after a corrective bounce plays out.

While the ASX shows the potential to dip further, I remain wary that we’ll see an immediate bearish follow through while Wall Street teases new record highs.

The ASX 200 index is eyeing a record high. But with SPI 200 futures dragging its heels below resistance looms and the Fed unlikely to cut soon, an immediate breakout is not on my horizon. Even though an eventual breakout seems inevitable.

Signs of fatigue have surfaced across several key markets which had otherwise began the week on a strong footing. And that could see gold and the ASX 200 retrace further from their cycle highs.

Tuesday looms as a potential make-or-break session for Australia’s ASX 200 with futures sitting at a key technical level on the charts ahead of the RBA interest rate decision. One saving grace may be the continued rebound in iron ore futures in Singapore.

Two very different indices, two similar trading setups. Will traders be willing to continue chasing record highs next week? The unconvincing price action to end the week warns of downside risks.

Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.

Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.

I’m particularly keen to see if the significant loss of full-time jobs is seen for a second consecutive month in tomorrow's Australian employment report. So today we look at how the ASX 200 and AUD/USD have performed around this key economic data release.

Having been a major benefactor from the soft-landing narrative, the combination of higher global interest rates and stretched valuations has Australia’s ASX 200 index under pressure.

US two-year Treasury yields are at risk of breaking back into the higher range they traded in prior to the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot last year, creating opportunities in markets sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations such as Australia’s ASX 200, USD/JPY and gold.