Bonds

When gold falls alongside stocks, you know there's trouble. But we're also seeing bond bears return to push yields higher, but not in a 'risk-on' fashion.

Fed rate-cut bets are on the rise again after following another weak consumer sentiment report weighed on sentiment and warned of a slowing US economy.

Has EUR/USD finally found its floor? A clear morning star pattern suggests near-term lows may be in, but with Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing looming, could a bond market twist drive the euro’s next big move?

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

Another day, another handle for USD/JPY which rose to a fresh multi-decade higher. Bond yields also continued to rally after the Biden-Trump debate, which has markets concerned that a more inflationary presidency under Trump seems the more likely outcome.

If the 2-year yield is right, it suggests the USD could be set to rise over the near term. And I suspect that PCE inflation could be the trigger. For now, risk off tones are in the air.

Bond markets make the financial world go round, helping to grease the wheels of commerce, allowing the economy activity to expand. But when too much debt is issued, it can overwhelm demand, causing borrowing costs to spike which can be detrimental to the economy.

The suspected intervention from the BOJ this week has changed the game for USD/JPY, placing a rather large barrier in the way of further upside at a time when US bond yields were already looking toppy.

The US 2-year bond yield remains support, which is capping the yield at 5% and weighed on the US dollar. And that helped AUD/USD rise for a second day ahead of a key AU CPI report.

EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.