CPI

Traders and economists are projecting headline CPI to come in at 2.8% y/y, with the core (ex-food and -energy) reading expected at 3.1% y/y - see what that might mean for the US Dollar!

EURUSD, Nasdaq Forecast: While chart indicators are flashing warning signs not seen since 2008, the once reliable 'buy the dip' mentality is starting to falter. Trump's tariff decisions could be ushering in a new market era—one that challenges bullish convictions across asset classes.

Sentiment received a boost today as February inflation came in cooler than anticipated, propelling stocks higher after two days of steep declines. Techs were leading the charge with Nvidia up 6.7% and Tesla up 8% at the time of writing. Can the tech megacaps lead a market recovery and boost the short-term S&P 500 forecast?

Despite recovering post CPI and remaining on the front-foot in the last couple of days, the USD/JPY forecast remains mildly bearish in light of the weakness in US data and after the greenback suffered its worst weekly performance since November 2022 last week.

The US CPI is expected to narrow to 2.9% in February from 3.0% per annum the month prior, with the core rate also anticipated to fall to 3.2% from 3.3% during the same period.

EUR/USD, Dow Jones Forecast: EUR/USD extends to a new 2025 high above 1.09, while the Dow rebounds from its 41,600-neckline ahead of the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday.

USD/JPY is testing a logical support zone for a bounce if we see an as-expected or hotter-than-expected inflation reading.

The upcoming US CPI data and ongoing trade war developments are expected to be the key drivers of market movements this week. Chinese deflation risks further fuel concerns about a global decline in economic confidence.

The dollar’s failure to rally on the back of the latest trade tariffs and US inflation data from last week, you do have to wonder whether the greenback has formed at least a near-term peak. For that reason, the cable may still be able to recover despite being lower today. So, we maintain a cautiously positive GBP/USD outlook for now

The focus for is now turning to data with the release of US CPI today, PPI tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. The USD/JPY will get a boost should inflation data surprise to the upside.

Markets stay on edge as inflation fears grow, fueled by Fed Chair Powell’s stance on delaying rate cuts, upcoming U.S. CPI data, and tariff impacts. Nasdaq holds below record highs, while EUR/USD maintains its bullish rebound.