Crude Oil Weekly Outlook

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: WTI crude is challenging the $65 resistance as markets weigh US-China trade talks, expectations of an OPEC+ supply cut rollback by June, rising supply risks from Russia, and heightened geopolitical tension following an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port near the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil transit route — which may impact oil prices next week.

After falling to the $65 per barrel zone, WTI has posted a recovery of over 6% over the past two weeks of trading. For now, the bias remains neutral, as the market stays focused on the potential outcomes of U.S. trade tariffs.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Tariff concerns weigh on oil demand forecasts and geopolitical tensions elevate supply risks; this dual pressure is stalling oil’s rebound near the $70 per barrel mark ahead of Liberation Day and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) week.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Oil prices remain range-bound, caught between rising Middle East tensions and potential Russia–Ukraine peace deals. While peace deals could amplify oversupply and weak demand concerns, escalating conflict may lift risk premiums and temporarily support prices.

After years of sticking rigidly to fiscal orthodoxy, Berlin is now opening the taps. The newly approved legislation paves the way for a €500 billion fund earmarked for infrastructure investment while also loosening borrowing restrictions to facilitate a sharp rise in defence spending. This is something that is expected to boost GDP and potentially keep inflation elevated, providing a positive backdrop to the medium term EUR/USD forecast.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: the crude oil market is expected to remain volatile this week with the Chinese economic stimulus, shifts in US monetary policy expectations, and supply concerns between hurricanes and geopolitical tensions. This will coincide with the release of OPEC and IEA Oil monthly reports and 2024-2025 forecasts.