Currency pair of the week

The EUR/USD forecast is turning bearish amid investor fears and market realisation that tariffs may be here to stay as Trump digs in, telling reporters that "sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.

The US dollar was on the back foot in the first half of Wednesday’s session as the trade war enters a critical phase. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs day finally arrives later on, with risk sentiment remaining fragile following a bruising few weeks for global markets, especially Wall Street.

Despite a weaker start to the new week, the EUR/USD forecast remains bullish in our view in light for Germany’s historic spending shift that was approved last week.

In the US, weakening data and trade uncertainty has undermined the dollar, while over in Europe, attention has been on fiscal stimulus measures and defence spending commitments from Germany. Against this backdrop, it is difficult to be bearish on the EUR/USD forecast.

The US dollar is likely to remain under pressure this week as weakening US data raises the prospects of a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, keeping the EUR/USD forecast bullish. We reckon the single currency is heading to $1.10 following last week’s bullish reversal.

The EUR/USD has been able to rally at the start of this week, despite Trump’s trade tariffs and uncertainty over Ukraine. This pair will remain in sharp focus for these reasons alone, but also have the ECB rate decision and key data from the US to look forward to as well. The EUR/USD forecast is therefore subject to great uncertainty, but for now it looks like the path of least resistance is to the upside.

Markets are lacking any concrete bearish drivers for the greenback, which has allowed it to stage a bit of recovery along with bond yields. Still, the near-term EUR/USD outlook has improved, and I think the risks are now skewed to the upside for the pair, which I think is still heading north of the 1.05 handle in the coming days.

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, US CPI data, and key corporate earnings due this week, the GBP/USD forecast remains cautiously bearish following last week’s dovish rate cut by the Bank of England.

Although the pound has fallen along with other major currencies, it may be able to regain its poise with Trump suggesting that a deal "can be worked out" with the UK. This means the risks to the GBP/USD forecast are less pronounced than the likes of the Canadian dollar or the euro.

The bearish momentum has been fuelled by a surging US dollar, which has been supported on the back of stronger labour market data and expectations inflationary pressures will return under Trump. Combined with weak economic data from the Eurozone and China, this is all helping to keep the EUR/USD forecast and trend bearish.

Investors are eagerly anticipating what could be the final hurrah for volatility in 2024, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, as well as the BoE, all poised to reveal their rate decisions and provide outlook for the upcoming year. The GBP/USD forecast remains bearish.