EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD may continue to coil above the 50-Day SMA (1.0890) as it defends the weekly low (1.1308).

EUR/USD stalled by the pair has held up better than both EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP. This article looks at the single currency in three pairs for the week ahead.

Last week witnessed a dramatic shift across global markets. US 10-year Treasury yields leapt by over 40 basis points, the S&P 500 posted a big rally, and the US dollar saw a near 4% decline against the euro. The common denominator behind all the market movement was Washington’s approach to trade policy.

EUR/USD may further retrace the decline from the 2024 high (1.1214) as it completes a cup-and-handle formation.

EUR/USD was aggressively bearish into the Q1 open but as the quarter winds to a close it’s been a completely different picture.

After Zelensky clashed with Trump in an extraordinary exchange in the Oval Office, investors priced out the chances for a speedy agreement, with Trump telling the Ukrainian president to "make a deal or we're out" as he was told to leave the White House abruptly. The EUR/USD outlook is subject to increased uncertainty as we head towards a busy week ahead.

EUR/USD rallied back to 1.0500 last week as Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement didn’t evoke much fear. But he also warned that tariffs on autos are coming.

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, US CPI data, and key corporate earnings due this week, the EUR/USD forecast remains cautiously bearish.

Due to the hawkish repricing of US interest rates, the EUR/USD forecast remains bearish as we look forward to another week of volatility. US CPI and Chinese GDP are among the data highlight to watch.

Euro rallied nearly 3% off the yearly lows with the bulls threatening a larger offensive into the yearly close. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

. The big data for the week comes on Friday, November 22, when the global flash PMIs are released. Concerns about demand have intensified in recent weeks, with Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on China and the Eurozone likely to exacerbate those fears when he comes to office.