FOMC

USD/CAD, Bitcoin Outlook: With U.S. economic indicators still falling short of signaling a deeply concerning outlook, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm in a bullish rebound. At the same time, haven demand appears to be shifting toward Bitcoin, which is gaining traction amid broader market uncertainty.

Hopes that the US will strike some trade deals with its large trading partners ahead of the weekend meeting between US and Chinese trade representatives is helping to keep risk appetite mildly positive. This is keeping the Dow Jones forecast neutral as the index tests a major resistance area.

The GBP/USD forecast remains delicately balanced, ahead of key central bank decisions from both sides of the pond. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are on the docket, with traders preparing for possible policy divergence.

EURUSD, GBPUSD Forecast: While the DXY maintains an inverted head-and-shoulders formation, EURUSD and GBPUSD continue to hold their respective reversal patterns — a head-and-shoulders for EURUSD and a double top for GBPUSD — awaiting a key market catalyst to drive directional confirmation.

With US yields lower and hinting at a swing high, the relationship between AUD/USD and the AU-US 2-year spread appear to be back on talking terms. And that could bode well for AUD/USD bulls if US yields continue to fall in line with my bias.

Stocks showed a strong reaction to the Fed and Gold hit a fresh ATH. Currencies were more muted but the question now is follow-through given the tenuous tariff topic.

EUR/USD has cooled from the earlier March breakout, but bulls haven’t waved the white flag yet and today’s FOMC rate decision brings the potential for volatility.

Oil prices retreated to $66 amid growing concerns over global economic growth, rising inventory levels, and oversupply risks, further pressured by OPEC’s April supply plans. With the (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, market participants are closely watching for signals on the Fed’s policy stance and its implications for oil demand.

With the US Federal Reserve to make its own policy announcement later, the USD/JPY outlook could take a new direction in the near-term, as the pair continues to test a major resistance zone near the 150.00 area.

USDJPY, DXY Forecast: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held interest rates at 0.5% as expected, amid tariff uncertainties, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains near its 2025 lows ahead of the FOMC outlook, keeping markets on edge.

With U.S. rate cut bets scaled back, EUR/USD and GBP/USD have struggled to extend their recent rallies. The FOMC decision could determine whether that trend continues or sparks a sudden reversal.