Indices

The S&P 500 forecast remains murky as markets grapple with rising geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation anxieties. Sentiment soured across European and Asian bourses in the first half of Thursday, with traders unnerved by the growing spectre of US military involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict.

Wall Street opened lower after US equity futures fell along with European markets overnight, as oil prices rose after Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran. The Dow Jones forecast was further undermined by a soft set or macro data.

The Nasdaq index began the week with steady bullish momentum, posting a gain of just over 1.4% in the short term.

The ASX 200 is on track for a fifth straight weekly gain, but momentum is fading as it stalls below the February peak. With sentiment still risk-on, traders may favour dip buying if a pullback emerges.

Trade war uncertainty makes an unwelcome return, leaving investors to question holding expensive stocks. Other risks that include valuation concerns, bond market troubles, and a potential military conflict between Iran and Israel. Against this backdrop, the short-term risk to the Nasdaq 100 forecast is now tilted to the downside.

Wall Street’s rally is losing steam despite upbeat US–China trade talks. Bearish patterns and fading momentum suggest the major US indices may be nearing a turning point.

Risk appetite remained firm after the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation data, which boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner than expected – possibly in September instead of October – and potentially twice before the year is out.

Asian indices remain in bull market territory, but signs of slowing momentum in the ASX 200 and Nikkei contrast with Hang Seng’s stronger breakout.

Stocks rise as Trump call with Xi resulted in a “very positive” conclusion for both countries, according to the US president. Commodity currencies firmer as US and China agree to start a new round of trade talks; USD/JPY rebounds and gold turns negative despite big silver breakout.

The FTSE forecast remains positive, with the UK index supported today by a rallying Fresnillo stock, which was shining along with silver prices. Also boosting risk appetite is a potential call between leaders of the world’s two largest economy to resume trade negotiations.

S&P 500 forecast: trade concerns and global slowdown threaten recent gains, although no major bearish signs have emerged yet, with job openings and payrolls in focus this week.