NFP

The US Dollar is deeply oversold, but given we’re in the midst of the biggest US trade upheaval in a century, it may take a strong jobs report indeed to boost the buck from here.

The USD/CAD started rising sharply on the back of Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, before falling back equally sharply this week when the US President significantly expanded the goods exempted from his new tariffs that were only imposed two days earlier. Then, today, we had jobs data from both North American nations causing even more volatility for the pair. If you think that was enough, the week ahead promising to further impact the USD/CAD forecast, with key US data and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada to come.

The US Dollar is at support and deeply oversold, so the risks may be tilted to an upside reactionif the jobs report is at or above expectations, but that may be a high hurdle to clear given the headwinds from DOGE and tariff threats.

Friday's data showing strong wages growth and hot inflation expectations, and ongoing expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, means the Fed is likely to remain on pause for a long time. Against this backdrop, the US dollar forecast remains bullish.

EURUSD, Dow Forecast: Markets remain steady ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, another uncertain weekend, and the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, as tariff and trade war risks dominate 2025 headlines.

As you’d expect, volatility has been contained ahead of NFP, but implied volatility has blown out. The 1-day IV for USD/JPY is nearly twice its 10-day average, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD around 50% more than usual.

The US is expected to add 170K jobs in January, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1% during the same period.

NFP leading indicators point to a potentially above-expectation reading in Friday's jobs report - see what it might mean for the US Dollar!

With the monthly ADP payrolls figures delivering a solid set of data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, I take a closer look to see if the ADP can help pick the direction of NFP.

USD/JPY extends the decline from the start of the week to push below the January low (153.72).

USDJPY, Gold Forecast: Trade war risks between the world’s two biggest economies, the US and China, weaken the dollar and boost haven momentum on gold, and Yen recharges strength against dollar with rate hike projections.