NFP

EUR/USD and USD/JPY approach key resistance zones with volatility rising ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. Here's how price action is shaping up.

The US Dollar is vulnerable as leading indicators point to near-expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 115-150K range.

Crude Oil, Nasdaq Outlook: Crude oil holds a bullish breakout above the $63 mark, while the Nasdaq remains capped below the key 21,800 resistance ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) and amid intensifying tariff negotiations. What are the key levels to watch?

USD/CAD eyes a bounce from key support, GBP/USD faces mean reversion risk, and gold’s sharp drop pauses at support — but bears may not be done yet.

Leading indicators point to near-expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 125-165K range.

The US Dollar is deeply oversold, but given we’re in the midst of the biggest US trade upheaval in a century, it may take a strong jobs report indeed to boost the buck from here.

The USD/CAD started rising sharply on the back of Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, before falling back equally sharply this week when the US President significantly expanded the goods exempted from his new tariffs that were only imposed two days earlier. Then, today, we had jobs data from both North American nations causing even more volatility for the pair. If you think that was enough, the week ahead promising to further impact the USD/CAD forecast, with key US data and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada to come.

The US Dollar is at support and deeply oversold, so the risks may be tilted to an upside reactionif the jobs report is at or above expectations, but that may be a high hurdle to clear given the headwinds from DOGE and tariff threats.

Friday's data showing strong wages growth and hot inflation expectations, and ongoing expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, means the Fed is likely to remain on pause for a long time. Against this backdrop, the US dollar forecast remains bullish.

EURUSD, Dow Forecast: Markets remain steady ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, another uncertain weekend, and the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, as tariff and trade war risks dominate 2025 headlines.

As you’d expect, volatility has been contained ahead of NFP, but implied volatility has blown out. The 1-day IV for USD/JPY is nearly twice its 10-day average, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD around 50% more than usual.