Stocks

The ‘Black Monday’ calls were only a few weeks ago but bulls have since made a strong move off the April lows.

U.S. equities put in a historic performance on the back of yesterday’s 90-day delay in tariff implementation, with stocks showing the strongest rallies since the bottom of the Covid sell-off.

SPX broke its weekly losing streak last week and this week is starting off on a more optimistic tone.

The question now is whether dip-buyers will make a return, as they have in recent sessions, and provide a boost to the Nasdaq 100 outlook by lifting it from a key support area. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both at pivotal junctures, testing their respective 200-day moving averages alongside key tech names such as Amazon, Oracle, Tesla, and MicroStrategy.

Stocks took a hit over the past two weeks, but support has started to show at a familiar spot, the same that led to a sharp reversal earlier in the year.

Stocks got rocked on Friday despite an abysmal PMI print, which suggests that the door may be opening for rate cuts later this year. Perhaps more concerning to the matter is the USD/JPY sell-off.

Stock prices have been very volatile on an intra-day basis but less so in the bigger picture, as S&P 500 futures have traded within a 5.6% range over the past two months.

UK stocks outperformed as the pound weakened following a disappointing construction PMI reading, and after the Bank of England cut rates and halved its growth forecasts. However, US indices and futures have yet to hit new all-time highs, potentially signalling fading bullish momentum for US stocks ahead of more tech earnings today. That said, the Nasdaq 100 forecast still bullish given an overall positive technical backdrop.

It was a crude way to open a massive week, as fears of the AI rally being overblown obscured a loaded economic calendar.

Stocks continued to rally last week with another drive after President Trump’s inauguration. Now we get to hear from the Fed and then Friday brings an important piece of inflation data.

Investors are closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including jobless claims and retail sales data today, for clues about the health of the US economy and the Fed’s policy trajectory. For as long as we don’t see big surprises, mildly positive surprises in these areas could reinforce the market’s optimism and provide further fuel for the S&P 500.