Trade ideas

Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors, commodities & stocks into the weekly open.

The broader gold forecast and price direction remains constructive, even with some of its haven appeal diminishing. Until we witness clear patterns of lower highs, lower lows, and firm trade agreements rather than more political bluster from the Trump administration, the prospect of fresh highs for gold cannot be dismissed.

Bearish momentum is building in gold following last week's reversal from record highs. With optimism in risk assets lingering and technical patterns flashing warnings, it may be some time before gold can mount another serious push towards $3500.

Risk sentiment has taken the driver’s seat for USD/JPY, but this week’s barrage of top-tier U.S. data and BOJ guidance may hand the reins back to fundamentals.

USD/CAD plunged nearly 6.9% off the yearly highs with price now ranging just above trend support at the yearly low. Battlelines drawn on the short-term technical charts.

Markets appeared to steady themselves last week, with risk assets such as the S&P 500 pressing higher and haven assets taking a backseat.

The V-shape recovery in AUD/USD seems to have stalled ahead of the December high (0.6515) as it struggles to retain the advance from the weekly low (0.6344).

Japanese Yen is on the defensive as the USD/JPY bulls attempts to snap a three-week losing streak. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Stock indices extend their gains initially as the positive sentiment from the previous day carried forward into the early European trade. But at the time of writing, markets were coming off their best levels, possibly on the back of the Time Magazine’s interview with Donald Trump.

Sticky inflation in Japan’s capital keeps pressure on the BOJ to normalise policy, but uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and global growth is forcing caution. Despite the hot data, USD/JPY remains a risk appetite trade for now.

Oil prices rallied more than 17.6% off the yearly low with the recovery now approaching key resistance hurdles. A multi-timeframe view of the oil technical charts.