Trade War

Stocks rise as Trump call with Xi resulted in a “very positive” conclusion for both countries, according to the US president. Commodity currencies firmer as US and China agree to start a new round of trade talks; USD/JPY rebounds and gold turns negative despite big silver breakout.

Until the Trump-Xi call and ECB decision play out, expect EUR/USD forecast to remain stable, and price action to stay range-bound. I remain cautious on chasing USD rallies and see 1.1215-1.1220 as a key area to watch if bearish momentum builds.

A big worry is the rising debt levels and increasing cost of debt servicing. Without a strong rebound in the economy, there are no plans in place to deal with this issue, which, ultimately, may come back to haunt the US economy in the long-term. Therefore, despite the drop in eurozone inflation, it is far too early to turn negative on the EUR/USD forecast.

S&P 500 forecast: trade concerns and global slowdown threaten recent gains, although no major bearish signs have emerged yet, with job openings and payrolls in focus this week.

Nasdaq 100 futures hint at an upside move with traders eyeing the record highs, but tariff headlines could swing sentiment. Wall Street awaits Trump’s next trade move.

We maintain a bearish USD/JPY outlook and reckon an eventual break below the 140.00 is likely. A mix of risk aversion amid trade war uncertainty and fiscal concerns creates an ideal environment for the yen to prosper.

The bullish gold forecast has taken a boost as trade tensions have returned to the headlines. And with bond markets wobbling, gold could be setting up for another leg higher.

With trade uncertainty at the forefront, the S&P 500 outlook could tilt back to bearish after what was a solid month for global stocks markets.

The EUR/USD weakened in the first half of Friday’s session as the US dollar made a comeback after yesterday’s drop. The greenback rebound, some would say rather surprisingly, in the face of fresh uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s ever-contentious tariff agenda.

S&P 500 futures have rallied by as much as 24% from the April lows, right around when some financial pundits were calling for a ‘Black Monday’ type of event.

After rallying sharply at the start of the week, the USD/JPY went on to rise above the 146.00 handle overnight. But that’s where the music stopped. In the last few hours, yen has been going higher, almost in a straight line.