US NFP

The US is expected to add 140K jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% during the same period.

The US is expected to add 160K jobs in February, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0% during the same period.

As you’d expect, volatility has been contained ahead of NFP, but implied volatility has blown out. The 1-day IV for USD/JPY is nearly twice its 10-day average, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD around 50% more than usual.

With the monthly ADP payrolls figures delivering a solid set of data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, I take a closer look to see if the ADP can help pick the direction of NFP.

I doubt we’ll be seeing too much weakness in December’s NFP figures later today, and that could prompt another bid for the USD. But with Trump likely to revive his disdain for a strong dollar, perhaps a pullback is not too far away.

Dow Jones dropped over 2% during the last trading week, falling from the peak of 43,400 recorded in late December 2024.

The US is expected to add 154K jobs in December, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.2% during the same period.

USD/JPY extends the advance from the start of the week to clear the December high (158.09).

EURUSD Forecast: The EUR/USD enters 2025 on a bearish note following a sharp downturn at the end of 2024. However, extreme oversold levels hint at potential bullish reversals. Key market-moving factors, including Eurozone inflation data and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, are in focus this week, adding volatility risks.

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: As the final BOJ meeting for 2024 approaches, combined with holiday season trends, the Yen and Silver are poised for potential bullish rebounds. However, the strength of the Dollar rally remains in question.

The US is anticipated to add 200K jobs in November, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% during the same period.