US NFP

USD/JPY breaks out of the range bound price action from earlier this week as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report shows a 139K expansion in May.

The US is expected to add 130K jobs in May, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.2% during the same period.

USD/CAD eyes a bounce from key support, GBP/USD faces mean reversion risk, and gold’s sharp drop pauses at support — but bears may not be done yet.

The US is expected to add 130K jobs in April following the 228K expansion the month prior.

The US is expected to add 140K jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% during the same period.

The US is expected to add 160K jobs in February, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0% during the same period.

As you’d expect, volatility has been contained ahead of NFP, but implied volatility has blown out. The 1-day IV for USD/JPY is nearly twice its 10-day average, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD around 50% more than usual.

With the monthly ADP payrolls figures delivering a solid set of data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, I take a closer look to see if the ADP can help pick the direction of NFP.

I doubt we’ll be seeing too much weakness in December’s NFP figures later today, and that could prompt another bid for the USD. But with Trump likely to revive his disdain for a strong dollar, perhaps a pullback is not too far away.

Dow Jones dropped over 2% during the last trading week, falling from the peak of 43,400 recorded in late December 2024.

The US is expected to add 154K jobs in December, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.2% during the same period.