USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

Risk sentiment has taken the driver’s seat for USD/JPY, but this week’s barrage of top-tier U.S. data and BOJ guidance may hand the reins back to fundamentals.

USD/JPY continues to shrug off traditional drivers like yield spreads and Fed pricing, aligning more closely with classic safe havens like gold and Swiss franc. Unless that dynamic breaks, trade headlines and Treasury auctions may prove more influential than central bank speech or second-tier data releases in the week ahead.

Yield differentials no longer matter for USD/JPY as haven demand takes over. With political risk front and centre, traders may keep sidelining data and rates commentary for now.

After a whiplash reversal to end last week, all eyes turn to Monday’s open in Asia. Was it hedging? Or was it the start of something bigger?

Japanese yen traders face a volatile week with quarter-end flows, trade uncertainty, and major U.S. data releases. USD/JPY’s link to interest rates has weakened, but that could change post-March 31. A decisive move may come as the U.S. unveils new tariffs on April 2 as risks build on the downside.

USD/JPY is pressing against resistance as Japan’s fiscal year-end adds to quarter-end volatility risks. With interest rate differentials playing a reduced role, the yen’s fate may rest on risk sentiment and price action in equities.

Risk appetite is calling the shots for USD/JPY, but with Fed and BOJ decisions looming, the game could change fast.

Interest rate differentials have long been a key USD/JPY driver, but risk sentiment is now playing a bigger role. With U.S. economic data softening and stocks wobbling, the pair faces a crucial test ahead of the CPI report. Will risk-off flows keep USD/JPY under pressure, or is a countertrend rally overdue?

USD/JPY defied falling U.S. yields, holding firm at key support as markets recalibrate Fed rate expectations. With payrolls and Powell looming, volatility is primed to surge, setting the stage for a potential major move.

USD/JPY is at a crossroads as traders shift focus to Japanese inflation, U.S. data, and Nvidia’s earnings. With bond yield dynamics evolving as central banks policies diverge, volatility could surge, making this a critical week for yen traders.

Yen traders take note—USD/JPY has been moving more in step with Japanese rates than US yields. With key Japanese data and BoJ speakers on deck, could this spark the next leg lower?